Oxford, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

641
FXUS64 KBMX 280609
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
109 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025

A dwindling zone of showers will continue for another hour or two
across our northeast. Activity this evening overperformed in
coverage, and I suspect it may result in patchy fog development
through the morning hours due to the saturated conditions, so I did
introduce some lower visibilities across our northern areas.

Mid and upper-level water vapor imagery shows the counter clockwise
flow around the upper-level low centered over Georgia. In the low-
levels, a western Atlantic ridge extends across the Southeast
producing southwesterly flow over Central Alabama. A large zone of
moisture covers the region and will result in PWATs near the 75th to
90th percentile today and tomorrow, so conditions remain suitable
for additional showers and storms over the weekend. The activity
will continue to be mostly diurnally driven with scattered to
potentially numerous coverage during the afternoon and evening
hours. Remnant mesoscale boundaries are likely to play a big role in
where convective initiation occurs, and storm motions will be slow
and chaotic due to the current synoptic setup and outflow boundary
behavior. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s and the humid conditions will make it feel like the upper
90s to low 100s. Although there`s no organized severe threat at this
time, the unstable summertime conditions could result in some strong
storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025

By Sunday night, the upper-level low will break down, but a
shortwave over the Tennessee Valley will likely contribute to
thunderstorm activity across the northern portions of the area.
Unsettled conditions will continue into next week as moisture
content increases ahead of a longwave trough which will move from
Canada across the Great Lakes and Midwest regions by Tuesday, then
across the Ohio Valley and East Coast by Wednesday. This will set up
a convergent zone across the forecast area by Tuesday and Wednesday
as a cold front moves into the region, supporting numerous to
potentially widespread coverage of showers and storms above what we
normally see on a typical summertime day. It`s yet to be seen how
far south the front will advance, but guidance does indicate a
return to a drier airmass by the second half of the week as the
trough pushes into the Atlantic and deep northwesterly flow develops
over Central Alabama as mid-level ridging builds back in. If this
trend holds, then we should see lower rain chances by the end of the
week and temperatures back into the 90s area-wide.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025

-RA continues at ASN for another hour or two then patchy fog may
 develop across parts of the area resulting in reduced
 visibilities at some of the northern terminals through the
 morning hours, mainly at the terminals that received rain this
 evening. Will likely need to use amendments as conditions may
 periodically bounce from IFR to VFR before returning to
 prevailing VFR by mid morning. Additional convection is expected
 to develop tomorrow afternoon, but will largely be driven by
 mesoscale factors so will keep PROB30s in the TAF for now and add
 more detail in a later TAF issuance.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop again this
afternoon and on Sunday. Moisture content remains high with min RH
ranging from 55 to 60% today and slightly higher on Sunday. High
moisture content and increasing rain chances will persist into
next week along with generally light winds outside of
thunderstorm activity. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  69  89  69 /  40  20  60  20
Anniston    88  70  87  70 /  40  20  50  20
Birmingham  90  71  89  71 /  40  20  60  20
Tuscaloosa  90  72  88  73 /  40  20  60  20
Calera      88  71  88  71 /  40  20  60  20
Auburn      88  71  88  70 /  50  20  60  20
Montgomery  90  71  89  70 /  50  20  60  20
Troy        90  69  90  70 /  50  20  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....86/Martin
AVIATION...86/Martin