Oxford, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

500
FXUS64 KBMX 121559
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1059 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025

An upper level trough will swing through the Great Lakes area, while
a high pressure remains over the northern Gulf. Between these two
systems a pressure gradient will increase today over the TN Valley,
with mid level winds increasing. This puts the north and
northwestern half of the state with locally higher winds, with
weaker winds in the southern half of the state closer to the
center of high pressure. Diurnal convection is once again
expected, and very isolated in nature. Instabilities will be several
thousand, LI values look to be a little higher, around -7 to
-8 this afternoon across the whole area, and DCAPE also looks to
be higher, between around 700 and 900 J/kg. PW values will be near
max in the western part of the state, where west to southwesterly
flow prevailing this afternoon will bring moisture and warm air.
With all this said, would expect a few storms to be strong, and an
isolated severe threat is included for strong downburst winds.
Moderate hail can`t be excluded, with a few parameters supportive
of strong updraft strength. A Marginal Risk is included for the
north and northwest with those higher wind speeds in the mid and
low levels.

By Sunday, the upper level influences will have moved to the east
with that low and mid level weak jet decreasing in strength. The
high pressure will have more of an influence over the area, with
west to southwesterly prevailing flow remaining. Diurnal convection
is once again expected. Lapse rates don`t appear to be quite as
steep with less moisture advection. However, instabilities remain
high and there is more dry air in the mid levels for evaporative
cooling and downburst strength the increase. There could be yet
again strong storms, and will advertise a very isolated severe
threat for now, dependent on the moisture return available.

Heat indices today will be in the mid to upper 90s, with a few
isolated pockets of triple digits. Sunday, temperatures will be
slightly warmer with heat indices more scattered across the area
into the triple digits.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025

Monday, a surface high pressure strengthens and becomes
centered over an AL/MS area. This will allow for northerly low and
mid level flow to prevail, bringing in slightly lower moisture. In
the upper levels, models are trying to show a low to the west of the
MS, which would allow for more southerly flow. With this in mind,
diurnal convection will continue each day, though coverage and
intensity should be a lot lower with maybe an isolated strong storm
or two possible. By Wednesday, models start to diverge with the
GFS showing a low pressure developing in the Gulf and moving
towards Alabama. Confidence is low at this time as ECMWF doesn`t
show the same level of organization, but does clue into increased
rain over the area at the end of next week. Would need to
consider the strength of the high and if that low can push into
the southeast US. There is a weak upper level trough moving into
areas around the Ohio Valley, but the past several model runs have
been weakening this feature and showing an influence more in
northerly areas. Despite all this, coverage could become more
scattered to widespread, especially in areas of the southern half
of the state beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end of
the work week.

Temperatures will increase through Tuesday, with almost the whole
area reaching the triple digits by Tuesday afternoon. Hot
temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday, and if the
low pressure and increased rain (and cloud cover) holds through
Thursday, the temperatures should lower slightly with highs in the
low to mid 90s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025

Diurnal convection is expected today. Confidence is low on
coverage and timing, so included VCSH for now in each TAF. Coverage
should be more isolated, with a lower chance for any convection to
become scattered, with greater coverage in north and west Alabama
this afternoon. Will amend each site once any cells develop.
Tonight, there may be enough low level moisture for fog development,
especially in areas that receive rain late tonight. Included mention
of MVFR visibilities and ceilings for now, through lower ceilings
and vis may be possible. Tomorrow by mid morning, convection should
begin developing with coverage remaining isolated. Left mention of
VCSH out of TAF for now with the expectation of limited coverage.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the
foreseeable future. Rain chances will remain isolated through the
weekend and into next week, increasing by mid week. 20 foot winds
should remain less than 8 mph from the west through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  69  94  70 /  30  20  40  10
Anniston    91  71  92  72 /  30  10  30   0
Birmingham  93  72  93  73 /  30  20  30  10
Tuscaloosa  93  73  94  74 /  30  20  30  10
Calera      91  73  92  73 /  20  20  30   0
Auburn      91  74  93  74 /  20  10  20   0
Montgomery  93  74  94  74 /  20  10  30  10
Troy        93  72  94  73 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24